Peak Sprawl Happened—20 Years Ago

Analysis of the USDA’s 2010 National Resources Inventory, which tracks land use, shows the growth rate of suburban sprawl peaking in the mid-1990s, declining by two-thirds since then, even through the most recent housing boom. How did that happen?

1 minute read

February 13, 2014, 2:00 PM PST

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Payton Chung provides new analysis of the USDA’s 2010 National Resources Inventory that shows sprawl beginning to slow in the mid-1990s and continuing to slow ever since. The findings don't indicate that sprawl is over, just that it's not expanding as quickly as it did in the past. The "inflection point," or the moment the rate of sprawl began to decrease, occurred perhaps earlier than many realized. As pointed out by Chung, peak sprawl also "predated 'peak car' by 10-15 years."

As for why peak sprawl occurred in the 1990s, Chung speculates: "the 1980s cessation of massive freeway construction may have pushed many metro areas into some version of Marchetti's Wall: the theory that people don't want to travel more than one hour a day, and thus that metropolitan growth has geometric limits tied to how far the predominant mode of travel goes."

Chung also notes that some of the consequences of sprawl, like Vehicle Miles Traveled, will be impacted by the slowing rate of outward growth. "A majority of the VMT benefits from more-central locations come from the fact that destinations are closer and car trips are shorter; only a minority of the benefits come from a switch to other modes. As growth recentralizes, perhaps VMT can be expected to decline further."  

Thursday, February 13, 2014 in Greater Greater Washington

stack of books

Planetizen’s Top Planning Books of 2023

The world is changing, and planning with it.

November 24, 2023 - Planetizen Team

Close-up of 'Red Line Subway Entry' sign with Braille below and train logo above text in Chicago, Illinois.

Chicago Red Line Extension Could Transform the South Side

The city’s transit agency is undertaking its biggest expansion ever to finally bring rail to the South Side.

November 24, 2023 - The Architect's Newspaper

Diagram of visibility at urban intersection.

How ‘Daylighting’ Intersections Can Save Lives

Eliminating visual obstructions can make intersections safer for all users.

November 27, 2023 - Strong Towns

People walking on paved path in green city park with trees and tall city skyscrapers in background.

Green Spaces Benefit Neighborhoods—When Residents can Reach Them

A study comparing green space and walkability scores found that, without effective access to local parks, residents of greener neighborhoods don’t reap the health benefits.

December 3 - American Heart Association News

Aerial view of Eugene, Oregon at dusk with mountains in background.

Eugene Ends Parking Minimums

In a move that complies with a state law aimed at reducing transportation emissions, Eugene amended its parking rules to eliminate minimum requirements and set maximum parking lot sizes.

December 3 - NBC 16

White, blue, and red Chicago transit bus at an urban bus station with shelter.

Chicago Announces ‘Better Streets for Buses’ Plan

The plan establishes a ‘toolkit’ of improvements to make the bus riding experience more reliable, comfortable, and accessible.

December 3 - City of Chicago

News from HUD User

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

New Updates on PD&R Edge

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

"Rethinking Commuter Rail" podcast & Intercity Bus E-News

Chaddick Institute at DePaul University

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.