Looking at History and Seeing a Grim Future for the World's Coastal Cities

Justin Gillis tags along with researchers who are trying to pinpoint just how much of the world's coastlines will be inundated by dramatically rising sea levels. By looking at historical records scientists are beginning to paint a grim picture.

2 minute read

January 22, 2013, 2:00 PM PST

By Jonathan Nettler @nettsj


Just how high can we expect global sea levels to rise in the coming decades due to global warming and melting polar ice?

"The question has taken on new urgency in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which caused coastal flooding that scientists say was almost certainly worsened by the modest rise of sea level over the past century. That kind of storm tide, the experts say, could become routine along American coastlines by late in this century if the ocean rises as fast as they expect."

Gillis profiles the work of paleoclimatologists such as Maureen E. Raymo of Columbia University, who is leading a team of scientists studying climate history. "Their evidence that [greenhouse] gases represent a problem is based not just on computerized forecasts of the future, as is commonly believed, but on what they describe as a growing body of evidence about what occurred in the past."

"In previous research [PDF] ," notes Gillis, "scientists have determined that when the earth warms by only a couple of degrees Fahrenheit, enough polar ice melts, over time, to raise the global sea level by about 25 to 30 feet. But in the coming century, the earth is expected to warm more than that, perhaps four or five degrees, because of human emissions of greenhouse gases."

The next few decades could see the release of enough emissions to make dramatic sea level increases inevitable, resulting in a "humanitarian crisis lasting many hundreds of years."

"If the rise is slower than expected, society may have time to adjust, or to develop new technology to solve the problem of greenhouse emissions," says Gillis. "But many scientists are plagued by a nagging fear that the opposite will occur — that their calculations will turn out to have been too conservative, and social stability will eventually be threatened by a rapid rise of the sea."

“At every point, as our knowledge increases,” Dr. Raymo said, “we’ve always discovered that the climate system is more sensitive than we thought it could be, not less.”

Monday, January 21, 2013 in The New York Times

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Green vintage Chicago streetcar from the 1940s parked at the Illinois Railroad Museum in 1988.

Chicago’s Ghost Rails

Just beneath the surface of the modern city lie the remnants of its expansive early 20th-century streetcar system.

July 13, 2025 - WTTV

Blue and silver Amtrak train with vibrant green and yellow foliage in background.

Amtrak Cutting Jobs, Funding to High-Speed Rail

The agency plans to cut 10 percent of its workforce and has confirmed it will not fund new high-speed rail projects.

July 14, 2025 - Smart Cities Dive

Worker in yellow safety vest and hard hat looks up at servers in data center.

Ohio Forces Data Centers to Prepay for Power

Utilities are calling on states to hold data center operators responsible for new energy demands to prevent leaving consumers on the hook for their bills.

July 18 - Inside Climate News

Former MARTA CEO Collie Greenwood standing in front of MARTA HQ with blurred MARTA sign visible in background.

MARTA CEO Steps Down Amid Citizenship Concerns

MARTA’s board announced Thursday that its chief, who is from Canada, is resigning due to questions about his immigration status.

July 18 - WABE

Rendering of proposed protected bikeway in Santa Clara, California.

Silicon Valley ‘Bike Superhighway’ Awarded $14M State Grant

A Caltrans grant brings the 10-mile Central Bikeway project connecting Santa Clara and East San Jose closer to fruition.

July 17 - San José Spotlight