Do Commute Times Create an Inherent Limit to Sprawl?

Charlie Gardner parses the data on mean commuting times recently released as part of the 2010 ACS estimates for metropolitan statistical areas, and wonders what the maximum mean travel time suggests for the urban form of America's cities.

1 minute read

August 29, 2012, 7:00 AM PDT

By Jonathan Nettler @nettsj


When comparing the mean commuting times among America's large metro areas, something funny appears. "Although population is strongly correlated with commuting time,
particularly when all metro areas over population one million are
included in the sample, the differences are surprisingly small," notes Gardner. For example, "Orlando, with an urbanized area of only 600 square miles, has a mean
commute just twelve seconds shorter than Dallas, which covers 1,780
square miles, although both cities have comparable densities, employment
centralization and highway miles per capita."

So is there an inherent limit to the potential extent to which development will sprawl into the fringes of a metropolitan area based on a maximum mean commute time of around 30 minutes? Gardner seems to think so and describes how development in, and around Houston, might be shaped by such forces. 

"This theory doesn't imply that outwards expansion will come to a
screeching halt once some magical distance from the center is reached," writes Gardner,
"but that the balance of new construction will attempt to shift to the
core as commutes from fringe areas begin to significantly exceed 30
minutes."

 

Thanks to Daniel Lippman

Tuesday, July 24, 2012 in Old Urbanist

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Green vintage Chicago streetcar from the 1940s parked at the Illinois Railroad Museum in 1988.

Chicago’s Ghost Rails

Just beneath the surface of the modern city lie the remnants of its expansive early 20th-century streetcar system.

July 13, 2025 - WTTV

Blue and silver Amtrak train with vibrant green and yellow foliage in background.

Amtrak Cutting Jobs, Funding to High-Speed Rail

The agency plans to cut 10 percent of its workforce and has confirmed it will not fund new high-speed rail projects.

July 14, 2025 - Smart Cities Dive

Worker in yellow safety vest and hard hat looks up at servers in data center.

Ohio Forces Data Centers to Prepay for Power

Utilities are calling on states to hold data center operators responsible for new energy demands to prevent leaving consumers on the hook for their bills.

July 18 - Inside Climate News

Former MARTA CEO Collie Greenwood standing in front of MARTA HQ with blurred MARTA sign visible in background.

MARTA CEO Steps Down Amid Citizenship Concerns

MARTA’s board announced Thursday that its chief, who is from Canada, is resigning due to questions about his immigration status.

July 18 - WABE

Rendering of proposed protected bikeway in Santa Clara, California.

Silicon Valley ‘Bike Superhighway’ Awarded $14M State Grant

A Caltrans grant brings the 10-mile Central Bikeway project connecting Santa Clara and East San Jose closer to fruition.

July 17 - San José Spotlight