Does The 'Broken Windows' Theory Really Work?

"The theory was first articulated by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in the Atlantic magazine in 1982. They argued that minor forms of disorder â€" such as graffiti, litter, panhandling and prostitution â€" will, if left unattended, result in an increase in serious criminal activity. Clean up minor disorder, they said, and a reduction in major crime will follow.

...Over the years, however, "broken windows" policing has been controversial. Many reputable social scientists have suggested that there is no reliable evidence of a "broken windows" effect whatsoever. But Bratton hasn't wavered â€" arguing instead, according to the Boston Globe, that the academics are simply revealing an anti-cop bias.

...I recently concluded a study with my colleague, Jens Ludwig, of 1990s New York crime data. We found no evidence for the proposition that disorder causes crime or that "broken windows" policing reduces serious crime. Rather, the pattern of crime reduction across New York precincts during the 1990s, when Bratton was first experimenting with "broken windows" policing, is entirely consistent with what statisticians call "mean reversion." "