Katrina's Impact May Accelerate Economic Changes

"Consider what happened after a major earthquake struck Kobe, Japan, in 1995. Many people, in Japan and abroad, thought that the port city would take years, even decades, to recover. The quake, which had a magnitude of 6.9, was the worst ever to hit a modern city. It wrecked the port; destroyed 100,000 buildings and severely damaged many more; ruptured the water, sewer, electrical and gas systems; and destroyed roads and rail lines.

Yet despite the catastrophe, Kobe's economy recovered rapidly. Only a year after the quake, Kobe was handling as many imports as before the disaster, and exports had recovered to 83 percent of their previous level...

Rebuilding lives and communities does not, however, mean returning the economy to exactly where it was before. Rather, a disaster tends to accelerate economic changes that are already under way. That is because some physical assets, whether outdated manufacturing plants or homes in declining areas, are worth keeping only because they were paid for long ago and cost next to nothing to use. They would cost more to replace than they are worth."