How Birthrates Impact Demographics

An obscure demographic factor -- birthrates -- is strongly correlated with partisan splits in both the 2000 and 2004 elections.
December 17, 2004, 5am PST | Chris Steins | @urbaninsight
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"Among the 50 states plus Washington, D.C., white total fertility correlates at a remarkably strong 0.86 level with Bush’s percentage of the 2004 vote. (In 2000, the correlation was 0.85.) In the social sciences, a correlation of 0.2 is considered “low,” 0.4 “medium,” and 0.6 “high.”

You could predict 74 percent of the variation in Bush’s shares just from knowing each state’s white fertility rate. When the average fertility goes up by a tenth of a child, Bush’s share normally goes up by 4.5 points."

Thanks to Laura Kranz

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Published on Thursday, December 16, 2004 in The American Conservative
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