New Models of Risk Assessment Needed in Wildfire Zones

About 350,000 residents have lost wildfire insurance in recent years, as a series of catastrophic fires have swept the state of California and insurance industry struggles to keep up with climate change.

1 minute read

October 24, 2019, 9:00 AM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Fuel Break Wildfire

Pacific Southwest Region USFWS / Flickr

Wildfire insurance is out of reach for many Californians, according to an article by Gireesh Shrimali, and the industry needs to adjust to the new climate realities of the state.

"Over the past several years, premiums have risen significantly – as much as 300% to 500% [pdf] in many cases. And in many high-risk areas, insurers are increasingly opting not to renew coverage," according to Shrimali. In all, 350,000 Californians have lost insurance coverage since a second year of catastrophic fires hit the state in 2018.

According to Shrimali, California needs a new way to calculate risk given the challenges of climate change in the state.

Challenges for insurers include the increasing severity of risk, the danger of adverse selection (when low-risk customers subsidize high-risk customers), and the effects of spiraling premiums.

To manage these risks, Shrimali suggests a few specific measures that would achieve better models for assessing and pricing risk as well as steps to ensure a "robust and guaranteed demand for wildfire insurance, which will attract private insurers into the market."

Thursday, October 17, 2019 in The Conversation

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 30, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Close-up on Canadian flag with Canada Parliament building blurred in background.

Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?

As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?

April 28, 2025 - Benjamin Schneider

Hot air balloons rise over Downtown Boise with the State Capitol building visible amidst the high rises.

The Five Most-Changed American Cities

A ranking of population change, home values, and jobs highlights the nation’s most dynamic and most stagnant regions.

April 23, 2025 - GoodMigrations

People biking along beach path with moored ship in San Diego, California.

San Diego Adopts First Mobility Master Plan

The plan provides a comprehensive framework for making San Diego’s transportation network more multimodal, accessible, and sustainable.

6 hours ago - SD News

Sleeping in Public

Housing, Supportive Service Providers Brace for Federal Cuts

Organizations that provide housing assistance are tightening their purse strings and making plans for maintaining operations if federal funding dries up.

7 hours ago - KSL

Conductor walks down platform next to Amtrak train at station in San Jose, California.

Op-Ed: Why an Effective Passenger Rail Network Needs Government Involvement

An outdated rail network that privileges freight won’t be fixed by privatizing Amtrak.

May 2 - Streetsblog USA

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.

Senior Manager Operations, Urban Planning

New York City School Construction Authority

Building Inspector

Village of Glen Ellyn

Manager of Model Development

Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO