New Research Blames Affluent Suburbs for Housing Crisis

In an article in The Conversation, Paul G. Lewis and Nicholas J. Marantz explain how small, wealthy suburbs contribute to California’s housing crisis by resisting state efforts to mandate or encourage more housing construction.

The authors used census tract data to examine multifamily housing development in cities of various sizes between 2008 and 2018. “Over that span, according to our statistical estimates, a typical neighborhood-size census tract located within a city of 100,000 residents saw the development of 46 more new multifamily units than an otherwise very similar census tract located within a smaller city of 30,000 residents.”

This data reveals that smaller towns are less likely to add sorely needed apartments and other multifamily housing types. When the analysis was expanded to the entire country, the pattern was similar. Wealthy suburbs, often on the outskirts of large cities, fight new housing development; new housing development, if it happens, is pushed farther out, extending commutes and aggravating sprawl.

The authors explain that the nature of small cities makes them prone to political interests that skew toward the status quo. “To be sure, many homeowners in big cities have similar worries. But in a large, diverse city, anti-growth voices often are counterbalanced by pro-housing interests active in city politics, such as large employers, developers, construction unions or affordable-housing nonprofits.”

The article lists the possible mandates and incentives states have implemented to reduce barriers to housing construction, but, as evidenced by Silicon Valley cities, NIMBY groups will attempt creative ways to skirt regulations. In one ambitious example from Oregon, “Voters created and then strengthened an elective metro government to not just plan but actually carry out key regional land-use priorities” in the Portland region.