Report: Northern Virginia Transportation Plans Will Induce More Driving

The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority’s plans to widen and expand the region’s highways will lead to a sharp increase in vehicle miles driven, a new study shows.

2 minute read

April 15, 2022, 6:00 AM PDT

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Herndon, USA - October 7, 2020: Sully road 28 multiple lane highway in Northern Virginia with traffic cars and exit sign for Washington Dulles airport, Sterling and Leesburg

Kristi Blokhin / Highway in Northern Virginia

An analysis of the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority’s long-range plans predicts an increase in driving thanks to the agency’s road expansion plans. “Instead of helping Northern Virginians drive less, the proposed 1,200 miles of new pavement would make the region more car-dependent,” Bill Pugh reports, citing results from a study by the Coalition for Smarter Growth (CSG).

CSG’s On the Wrong Road report analyzed the current TransAction plan and found that Loudoun County would expand its arterial highways at a rate of 1.5 times its population growth and Prince William County at a rate of three times faster than its population growth. Fairfax and Manassas would also build arterial highway miles faster than their population growth.

Pugh cites research showing the “well-documented phenomenon of induced demand,” writing that “CSG used the State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel calculator, developed by Rocky Mountain Institute, and found that the TransAction plans could make Northern Virginia residents and workers drive almost 3 billion more miles per year by 2040 on top of new car trips anticipated from population and job growth.”

Some examples from the analysis: Loudon’s highway network could see a rise of 42 percent in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), while Price William’s non-interstate highway VMT could increase by 60 percent.

“New and expanded highway projects also spark more spread out and auto-dependent development, which generate even more driving and traffic over time,” Pugh writes. “This increased car dependence would also make it impossible for Northern Virginia to meet its climate commitments.” The CSG is calling on the NVTA to take steps to evaluate the potential for induced demand, support more sustainable transit modes, and “adopt a plan that will foster more walkable, transit-oriented communities with a range of housing options.”

Thursday, April 14, 2022 in Greater Greater Washington

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Aerial view of town of Wailuku in Maui, Hawaii with mountains in background against cloudy sunset sky.

Maui's Vacation Rental Debate Turns Ugly

Verbal attacks, misinformation campaigns and fistfights plague a high-stakes debate to convert thousands of vacation rentals into long-term housing.

July 1, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 2, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

White and purple sign for Slow Street in San Francisco, California with people crossing crosswalk.

San Francisco Suspends Traffic Calming Amidst Record Deaths

Citing “a challenging fiscal landscape,” the city will cease the program on the heels of 42 traffic deaths, including 24 pedestrians.

July 1, 2025 - KQED

Google street view image of strip mall in suburban Duncanville, Texas.

Adaptive Reuse Will Create Housing in a Suburban Texas Strip Mall

A developer is reimagining a strip mall property as a mixed-use complex with housing and retail.

July 6 - Parking Reform Network

Blue tarps covering tents set up by unhoused people along chain link fence on concrete sidewalk.

Study: Anti-Homelessness Laws Don’t Work

Research shows that punitive measures that criminalized unhoused people don’t help reduce homelessness.

July 6 - Next City

Aerial tram moving along cable in hilly area in Medellin, Colombia.

In U.S., Urban Gondolas Face Uphill Battle

Cities in Latin America and Europe have embraced aerial transitways — AKA gondolas — as sustainable, convenient urban transport, especially in tricky geographies. American cities have yet to catch up.

July 6 - InTransition Magazine