The Consequences of Urban Population Decline for American Cities

Big cities saw the sharpest population declines during the pandemic. Is the trend here to stay?

2 minute read

June 17, 2021, 6:00 AM PDT

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Chicago skyline

Leandro's World Tour / Flickr

With so much attention focused on the so-called exodus from big cities caused by the pandemic, research shows that "most big cities with populations exceeding 250,000 showed lower population growth in the year the pandemic began than in the previous year, and nearly one-third of them registered their lowest annual growth in the decade," writes William H. Frey for the Brookings Institution. "Still, only a few of these cities—mostly the nation’s largest—showed sharp population losses during the year COVID-19 began. Many of the others either continued population losses or slower gains that emerged earlier in the 2010s decade—or registered growth rises."

Big cities, by far, saw the greatest losses in population as people sought more affordable housing in outlying suburbs, helped along by the growing opportunities for remote work. This trend existed before the pandemic, but "large cities especially showed exceptionally slow or negative growth during the pandemic year."

"The most recent year’s city growth declines gave further impetus to the suburban growth advantage that took root midway in the 2010s decade. Earlier in that decade, a unique phenomenon emerged: a growth advantage for cities over their surrounding suburbs." But this short-lived advantage, "much of it attributable to the impact of the 2007-09 Great Recession and down housing market, which 'stranded' many young adult millennials in urban centers," has yielded back to the "broader suburbanization patterns that have been at work in most major metropolitan areas since the middle of the 2010s decade."

Whether or not the growth slowdowns precipitated by COVID-19 continue, writes Frey, "it is important to place them in the context of a 'shock' to an ongoing system of selective population dispersion that was established several years before the pandemic began—one that new generations of young adult movers may or may not choose to follow."

Tuesday, June 8, 2021 in Brookings Institution

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Aerial view of town of Wailuku in Maui, Hawaii with mountains in background against cloudy sunset sky.

Maui's Vacation Rental Debate Turns Ugly

Verbal attacks, misinformation campaigns and fistfights plague a high-stakes debate to convert thousands of vacation rentals into long-term housing.

July 1, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 2, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

White and purple sign for Slow Street in San Francisco, California with people crossing crosswalk.

San Francisco Suspends Traffic Calming Amidst Record Deaths

Citing “a challenging fiscal landscape,” the city will cease the program on the heels of 42 traffic deaths, including 24 pedestrians.

July 1, 2025 - KQED

Google street view image of strip mall in suburban Duncanville, Texas.

Adaptive Reuse Will Create Housing in a Suburban Texas Strip Mall

A developer is reimagining a strip mall property as a mixed-use complex with housing and retail.

2 hours ago - Parking Reform Network

Blue tarps covering tents set up by unhoused people along chain link fence on concrete sidewalk.

Study: Anti-Homelessness Laws Don’t Work

Research shows that punitive measures that criminalized unhoused people don’t help reduce homelessness.

4 hours ago - Next City

Aerial tram moving along cable in hilly area in Medellin, Colombia.

In U.S., Urban Gondolas Face Uphill Battle

Cities in Latin America and Europe have embraced aerial transitways — AKA gondolas — as sustainable, convenient urban transport, especially in tricky geographies. American cities have yet to catch up.

6 hours ago - InTransition Magazine