China Population: From Explosion to Implosion

China's one-child policy, which compelled couples to seek abortions or undergo sterilization procedures, ended in October 2015. Yet the country's birth rate hasn't increased, and Communist Party officials are concerned about economic growth.

3 minute read

August 21, 2018, 9:00 AM PDT

By Irvin Dawid


Shanghai Shopping

TonyV3112 / Shutterstock

"Almost three years after easing its “one child” policy and allowing couples to have two children, the government has begun to acknowledge that its efforts to raise the country’s birthrate are faltering because parents are deciding against having more children," report Steven Lee Myers and Olivia Mitchell Ryan for The New York Times.

Officials are now scrambling to devise ways to stimulate a baby boom, worried that a looming demographic crisis could imperil economic growth — and undercut the ruling Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping.

Experts say the government has little choice but to encourage more births. China — the world’s most populous nation with more than 1.4 billion people — is aging quickly, with a smaller work force left to support a growing elderly population that is living longer. Some provinces have already reported difficulties meeting pension payments.

It would seem that an obvious means to increase the birth rate would be to end the two-child policy or "family planning"  as the provincial government in Shaanxi in central China called for last month. A plan to do that is under consideration, but it is a sensitive issue because it would be an admission of failure of a program that touched everyone.

So the goal has been to encourage second births, which Leta Hong Fincher in her February 20 op-ed in The Times describes as "the government embarking on another grand experiment in population engineering: This time it was urging women — though only the right sort — to reproduce for China." Party officials are targeting women who are younger than 30 to have children for "scientific reasons." Fincher goes on to describe other ways that the state's reproductive policy shows "eugenic undertones."

Myers and Ryan add that "[s]ome provinces are already tightening access to abortion or making it more difficult to get divorced."

So far, the results have not been promising. Demographic data released in January "showed that the country’s birthrate fell by 3.5 percent in 2017 compared with the previous year," added Fincher.

Population expected to crash

"China’s population inevitably will start to crash in 2040," wrote Sissi Cao for the Observer in "3 of the World’s 5 Largest Economies Are Facing a Population Crisison June 6.

As of 2016, an average woman in Japan had just 1.4 babies; this number was 1.5 in Germany and 1.6 in China. All were well below the “replacement fertility rate [of 2.1 for developed nations],” the minimum birth rate required for a country’s dying population to be sufficiently replaced by newborns. 

"It is unclear whether lifting the two-child limit now will make much of a difference," add Myers and Ryan.

As in many countries, educated women in Chinese cities are postponing childbirth as they pursue careers. Young couples are also struggling with economic pressures, including rising housing and education costs.

The article describes other measures to boost fertility rates, not just by the government but from private companies as well, in order to increase the labor supply in the future. 

Additional posts on China's population policy can be found under the tag, "One-Child Policy."

Saturday, August 11, 2018 in The New York Times

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Green vintage Chicago streetcar from the 1940s parked at the Illinois Railroad Museum in 1988.

Chicago’s Ghost Rails

Just beneath the surface of the modern city lie the remnants of its expansive early 20th-century streetcar system.

July 13, 2025 - WTTV

Blue and silver Amtrak train with vibrant green and yellow foliage in background.

Amtrak Cutting Jobs, Funding to High-Speed Rail

The agency plans to cut 10 percent of its workforce and has confirmed it will not fund new high-speed rail projects.

July 14, 2025 - Smart Cities Dive

Worker in yellow safety vest and hard hat looks up at servers in data center.

Ohio Forces Data Centers to Prepay for Power

Utilities are calling on states to hold data center operators responsible for new energy demands to prevent leaving consumers on the hook for their bills.

July 18 - Inside Climate News

Former MARTA CEO Collie Greenwood standing in front of MARTA HQ with blurred MARTA sign visible in background.

MARTA CEO Steps Down Amid Citizenship Concerns

MARTA’s board announced Thursday that its chief, who is from Canada, is resigning due to questions about his immigration status.

July 18 - WABE

Rendering of proposed protected bikeway in Santa Clara, California.

Silicon Valley ‘Bike Superhighway’ Awarded $14M State Grant

A Caltrans grant brings the 10-mile Central Bikeway project connecting Santa Clara and East San Jose closer to fruition.

July 17 - San José Spotlight