A Reality Check on Crime, Safety, and Transit

Most people underestimate driving’s dangers and transit’s safety. In fact, automobile travel has about ten times the death rate as public transit, and transit vehicles also impose less risk on non-occupants like cyclists, pedestrians and other road users. Cars should come with warnings: “Driving causes painful injuries, disabilities and death.” 

As I wrote about recently in Bloomberg City Lab, last week the debate about transit’s safety escalated into a political shouting match between US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Manhattan Congressman Jerry Nadler. So the time feels right to set the record straight. Transit = safe. Driving = dangerous. 

Considering risks to both passengers and other road users, driving has about ten times the traffic fatality rate per passenger-mile as transit travel. Everybody is safer when travellers shift from driving to bus or rail, including motorists.

US Fatal Crash Rates by Mode

As transit travel increases in a community, total (all mode) crash casualties tend to decline. Sprawled areas have about five times the traffic fatality rates as transit-oriented neighborhoods. Even moderate increases in transit travel are associated with large reductions in traffic casualty rates.

Several factors contribute to these outcomes. Transit-oriented communities tend to have less total driving, slower traffic speeds and less high-risk driving. For example, in compact, multimodal neighborhoods customers normally walk or take transit to restaurants, pubs and bars, but in automobile-dependent areas they take their cars — and often drive home impaired. Age is a factor, too: In suburban and rural areas, parents often give teenagers access to cars to reduce their chauffeuring burdens, and older people often continue driving despite declining abilities because they lack alternatives. Since most fatal or high-injury crashes involve multiple vehicles, even a perfect driver who never errs is safer if their higher-risk neighbors shift from driving to transit.

Urban Regional Traffic Fatality Rate Versus Transit Ridership 

But what about crime risks? Many people have the impression that cities in general and transit vehicles in particular are hotbeds of criminality. They are mostly wrong.

During the last three decades, US crime rates declined significantly, as illustrated below. This occurred for virtually all crime types in virtually all communities, but the declines were particularly large in major cities. The assumption that cities are dangerous is out of date.

Transit travel has different but generally less crime risk than driving. The crimes that do occur on buses and trains also tend to be less costly. A typical transit theft involves a phone, wallet or backpack worth a few hundred dollars; a stolen or vandalized vehicle usually costs thousands of dollars to repair or replace.

Addressing transit crime anxiety is important because, when it comes to safety, perception is often reality. Fear discourages responsible passengers from using transit, which makes transit travel seem — and ultimately become — more dangerous.

US Violent Crime Rate Trends 

It is time to correct misinformation about the dangers of public transit travel and urban living. Road safety programs should promote transit travel and transit-oriented development rather than focusing exclusively on driver behavior. And transit agencies should give more priority to improving security, convenience, comfort and aesthetics. That means devoting more resources to cleaning and maintenance, safer sidewalks and crosswalks, better lighting and surveillance, and tighter enforcement and restrictions on unpleasant behaviors.

Agencies can also create a better narrative about the relative risks of using their service. Instead of dire warnings about the dangers of riding trains and buses, operators should open with a positive message: “Public transit is by far the safest way to travel — and we can make it even safer by observing safety rules, reporting suspicious activities, and challenging harassment of fellow passengers or transit employees.”