Pearl River Downturn

China's economic boom has often been compared to the West's industrialization, only running in fast-foward. IT looks as if the decline of Western industrial regions may be playing out in the China on the same accelerated time frame. BusinessWeek Asia is reporting on "China's Factory Blues" this week on how a perfect storm of recent developments - from the decline in the US housing market to soaring commodity prices and new labor regulations - is shuttering factories in the Peal River Delta at an alarming rate.

2 minute read

March 31, 2008, 6:55 AM PDT

By Anthony Townsend


China's economic boom has often been compared to the West's industrialization, only running in fast-foward. IT looks as if the decline of Western industrial regions may be playing out in the China on the same accelerated time frame. BusinessWeek Asia is reporting on "China's Factory Blues" this week on how a perfect storm of recent developments - from the decline in the US housing market to soaring commodity prices and new labor regulations - is shuttering factories in the Peal River Delta at an alarming rate.

The forecasts are pretty alarming in a country grown addicted to vigorous growth. "Comprehensive statistics on shutdowns are hard to come by. But the Federation of Hong Kong Industries predicts that 10% of an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 Hong Kong-run factories in the Pearl River Delta will close this year. In the past 12 months, 150 factories making shoes or supplying shoemakers have closed in Dongguan, says the Asia Footwear Assn. More plants will disappear as demand slows: UBS (UBS) analyst Jonathan Anderson expects overall export growth of just 5% or less for China this year."

That would be a problem in any economy. But in a place like southern China, where you are already dealing with a huge population of young, socially isolated migrant workers (with, I suspect a huge male-female imbalance) the situation could become combustible much sooner than anyone suspects. Or, it will just mean a lot of suffering. Either way, it's going to be a new set of challenges for modern China.

Technorati Tags: China, globalization, land use, manufacturing


Anthony Townsend

Anthony has been researching the implications of new technology on cities and public institutions for over a decade. As Research Director at the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in Palo Alto, California, Anthony's work focuses on several inter-related topics: pervasive computing, the urban environment, economics and demographics, public and nonprofit organizations, and the media industry.

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 30, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Close-up on Canadian flag with Canada Parliament building blurred in background.

Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?

As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?

April 28, 2025 - Benjamin Schneider

Hot air balloons rise over Downtown Boise with the State Capitol building visible amidst the high rises.

The Five Most-Changed American Cities

A ranking of population change, home values, and jobs highlights the nation’s most dynamic and most stagnant regions.

April 23, 2025 - GoodMigrations

A large Google data center building in the Netherlands.

Rethinking Computing: Researchers Tackle AI’s Energy Demands

USC researchers are reimagining how AI systems are trained and powered — through smarter algorithms, innovative hardware, and brain-inspired designs — to dramatically reduce computing’s energy footprint.

May 4 - USC News

Close-up of smartphone with Zoox logo and screen with blurred image of Zoox autonomous vehicle in background.

Amazon-Owned Robotaxis to Begin Testing in LA

Los Angeles will become the sixth city where Zoox is testing its autonomous vehicle technology.

May 4 - Smart Cities Dive

NYC MTA train on elevated rail with Manhattan skyline visible in background.

New York MTA Says No More Borrowing, Will Cut Costs Instead

The agency says it won’t take out any new loans to finance its planned improvements and is finding other ways to cut costs.

May 4 - Bloomberg CityLab

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.

Senior Manager Operations, Urban Planning

New York City School Construction Authority

Building Inspector

Village of Glen Ellyn

Manager of Model Development

Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO

Write for Planetizen