Study: Maui’s Plan to Convert Vacation Rentals to Long-Term Housing Could Cause Nearly $1 Billion Economic Loss

In May, the mayor of Maui made a bold announcement. As part of an ongoing effort to address the chronic housing shortage, exacerbated by the 2023 wildfires, the county would by eliminate more than 7,000 short-term vacation rental units — more than half of the island’s stock — and convert them to long-term housing by January 1, 2026.

While it’s looking unlikely that the county will hit that date, a recent study released by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization suggests that the delay might not be the worst thing. Honolulu Civil Beat reports that the study found that such a massive shock to the tourism-dependent economy could have potentially catastrophic consequences.

Erin Nolan reports for the Beat that the massive sudden change to the market would cause a 20-40 percent drop in condo prices in the area. While the increase in housing affordability would be welcome and intended, it would also cause a $60 million drop in property tax revenue for the county.

In addition, the 25 percent drop in visitor accommodation that the change would prompt would cause an estimated $900 million drop in visitor spending and 1,900 jobs to be lost.

The study acknowledged that a bold revisioning of the housing market was important to address, “However, given the scale of the potential economic disruption, careful implementation, monitoring, and flexibility will be essential to maximize benefits while minimizing unintended harm.” Researchers recommended pursuing other alternatives such as new taxes, rental permit auctions and incentives for new development.

Read the Honolulu Civil Beat’s full story, which links to the study, below.