Real Estate Market Won't Hit Bottom 'Til 2009

The Urban Land Institute reports on their new study, which predicts the real estate market will hit bottom in 2009 and 'flounder' through 2010.
October 24, 2008, 5am PDT | Tim Halbur
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"During this period, ongoing drops in property values, foreclosures, delinquencies, and a limping economy will continue to crimp property cash flows.

'Commercial real estate faces its worst year since the wrenching 1991–1992 industry depression,' conclude industry experts interviewed for the report, which projects losses of 15 percent to 20 percent in real estate values from the mid-2007 peak. 'Only when property financing gets restructured will pricing recorrect so we can find the floor, and this transition could wipe out companies and people,' says one respondent interviewed for the report.

'The industry is facing multiple disconnects,' said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank. 'Many property owners are drowning in debt, lenders are not lending, and for many (industry professionals), property income flows are declining. There is an unprecedented avoidance of risk. Only when financing gets restructured will pricing reconcile, giving the industry a point from which to start digging out of this hole.'"

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Published on Thursday, October 23, 2008 in ULI's The Ground Floor
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