Real Estate Market Won't Hit Bottom 'Til 2009
"During this period, ongoing drops in property values, foreclosures, delinquencies, and a limping economy will continue to crimp property cash flows.
'Commercial real estate faces its worst year since the wrenching 1991–1992 industry depression,' conclude industry experts interviewed for the report, which projects losses of 15 percent to 20 percent in real estate values from the mid-2007 peak. 'Only when property financing gets restructured will pricing recorrect so we can find the floor, and this transition could wipe out companies and people,' says one respondent interviewed for the report.
'The industry is facing multiple disconnects,' said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank. 'Many property owners are drowning in debt, lenders are not lending, and for many (industry professionals), property income flows are declining. There is an unprecedented avoidance of risk. Only when financing gets restructured will pricing reconcile, giving the industry a point from which to start digging out of this hole.'"