With Travel Behavior Still in Flux, Transit Ridership Projections are Harder to Make

Transit agencies use complex models to predict future ridership, but these have not yet caught up with the still-changing post-pandemic travel needs of transit users.

2 minute read

March 9, 2023, 10:00 AM PST

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Chicago Transit Authority

Sorbis / Shutterstock

With post-pandemic travel patterns still in flux, predicting transit ridership is becoming more challenging than ever, writes Jared Brey in Governing.

Despite the growth of sophisticated modeling methods in recent years, the most that many transit agencies can say at this point is that “The future is either going to be very bleak, surprisingly OK, or, in all likelihood, an unpredictable mixture of the two.” Brey explains that “Transit agencies try to predict future ridership for all types of scenarios — not just when making their yearly budgets but also when considering the impact of service changes or fare increases, and when applying for funding to build out new bus and train lines.” Now, agencies must collect new data to understand how the needs of transit users are changing.

Brey points out that even though ridership projections are used in federal grantmaking, “projections made in decades past have often proven to be wildly off-base.” More recently, agencies receiving New Starts federal grants are required to provide before-and-after studies to assess the accuracy of their projections. 

Carole Turley Voulgaris, an assistant professor of urban planning at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, notes that “In some ways, the roughly sketched scenarios that many transit agencies are projecting in their budget documents have an advantage over highly complex processes that are used to generate a single prediction of the most likely future scenario.” With so much uncertainty still looming, understanding the range of possible scenarios can help agencies plan more effectively for a variety of future situations.

Tuesday, March 7, 2023 in Governing

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 30, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Close-up on Canadian flag with Canada Parliament building blurred in background.

Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?

As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?

April 28, 2025 - Benjamin Schneider

Person in yellow safety suit and white helmet kneels to examine water samples outdoors on a lake shore.

USGS Water Science Centers Targeted for Closure

If their work is suspended, states could lose a valuable resource for monitoring, understanding, and managing water resources.

May 1, 2025 - Inside Climate News

View from back of woman and child walking on London street wearing warm clothes with a black cab visible in background.

Study: Large SUVs Double Risk of Death for Children Under 10

New research from the United Kingdom reveals the higher risk of larger vehicles for pedestrians and cyclists.

1 hour ago - The Standard

Housing construction in Austin, Texas

Texas Bills Aim to Tackle Housing Affordability

One proposed bill would raise the threshold for neighbor opposition to new development.

2 hours ago - The Texas Tribune

New York City Subway Platform

New York State Budget Includes $68B MTA Capital Plan, Boosts Transit Security

The state’s FY26 budget includes increased investment in transit security, mental health services, and fare evasion enforcement.

3 hours ago - Mass Transit

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.

Senior Manager Operations, Urban Planning

New York City School Construction Authority

Building Inspector

Village of Glen Ellyn

Manager of Model Development

Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO