Consultant predicts a 275% increase in car ownership by 2025.
Today in Indonesia, there are 80 cars for every 1,000 people. By 2025, a Frost & Sullivan consultant predicts the ownership rate could nearly triple to 300 per 1,000 Indonesians, largely concentrated in Indonesia's megacities. The predictions stem from rapidly growing GDP, which could increase fivefold over the same time period, to $17,000. (For comparison, the United States has about 812 vehicles per 1,000 residents.)
The predictions were made at an Indonesian automotive show, so may be on the more rosy side (or bleak, depending on your perspective) of the vehicle-growth prediction spectrum. However, Indonesian officials have demonstrated a clear concern with the dramatic impacts that can come from tripling the number of drivers on the roads in a little over a decade.
Motivated by both a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020 -- and the fact that it currently subsidizes fuel -- the Indonesian government is planning to promote efficient and alternative-fuel vehicles through tax incentives, as well as to develop plans for a tiny-engined "national car" that could be developed by either state-run enterprises or private firms. (The national car initiative is described in a separate article here)
Thanks to Rachel Proctor May
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