Half of traffic forecasts are off by at least 20%, according to a study of 210 international road and rail projects.
"Analysis of traffic forecasts and actual first year traffic at 210 international road and rail projects concludes that the road forecasts are inaccurate with about half out by over 20%, but not seriously biased up or down. Transit ridership forecasts, by contrast, are grossly inaccurate, heavily biased upward, and clearly manipulated by special interests. The average error of transit ridership is +106%. Recent projects show no improvement over earlier ones.
Very often planners are a large part of the problem however, FHB write. Accurate forecasts do not serve their purposes because they are more interested in using numbers to promote the project, what FHB call the "dark side" of forecasting.
'Forecasting is here mainly another kind of rent-seeking behavior, resulting in a make-believe world of misrepresentation that makes it extremely difficult to decide which projects deserve undertaking and which do not.' "
Thanks to Chris Steins
Read the full story: Forecasts shoddy for roads, mendacious for transit - Flyvbjerg
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
Amtrak, CN end decades-long dispute with eight-year agreement
The new operating agreement establishes an updated framework for the companies to work together, including processes to resolve disputes.
Judges permit Denver to divert 77,000 acre feet from the Colorado River for reservoir expansion
Overuse and climate change have caused the Colorado River’s water levels to plummet.
NYC DOT wants faster, more permanent street upgrades
The city is examining ways to build more concrete infrastructure without getting entangled in 'decades-long' projects.
'Something we’ve never seen before:' rising utility rates could strain city finances nationwide
Data centers, climate change and other factors have caused utility rates in the United States to increase by 38% since 2020.
Trump to overrule local leaders, lease millions of acres of America’s Pacific Island territories’ seafloors to mining companies
International law says that the Indigenous people of America’s territories have a right to prior and informed consent regarding projects that impact their countries.
FREE Course: Walkable City 1: Why Walkability?
After describing his path towards focusing on walkability as the essence of good planning, Jeff Speck marches through his five principal reasons for making more walkable places.
Reinventing Malls: Planning Alchemy—Turning Gray Fields Into Gold
The course focuses on the opportunities and imperatives that shape reinvention of mall sites.
Harvard University Graduate School of Design
KFH Group Inc.
Greater Baltimore Committee
The Architects Foundation
University of Cincinnati Online
The Pocatello Development Authority
The Urban Renewal Agency of the City of Pocatello