Analysis: DC needs tens of thousands of new homes — not just 'zoned capacity'

As Washington D.C. prepares to update its Comprehensive Plan, Payton Chung assesses the state of the District's housing supply in an analysis in Greater Greater Washington.

Chung uses several studies to show the range of housing units experts say are needed to bridge the housing gap, but they all reveal one thing: the District has been underbuilding by a wide margin.

According to economists at Freddie Mac, the D.C. region needs roughly 34,000 new homes. A meta-analysis from the American Enterprise Institute puts the need at nearly 32,000 homes. And national advocacy organization Up for Growth said the District's housing gap is 15,000 homes. The "most dramatic estimate" comes from two local economists who say D.C. actually needs 170,000 new units. 

Chung emphasizes that the number of new units built differs from "zoned capacity" — the highest number of units that could possibly be built on a parcel based on zoning codes. The District has a "zones housing capacity" of 445,000 homes, Chung adds. "However, most of those houses haven’t materialized so far, and will never materialize in the future, because they’re not feasible to build – they won’t make it through the 'housing production funnel' of economic feasibility (i.e., finding money to pay for the building) and site transactions (i.e., landowners selling)."