Report Shows San Francisco’s ‘Family Zoning’ Plan Would Produce Less Than Half of Needed Housing Units

A new economic analysis from the city of San Francisco’s Office of the Controller says that Mayor Dan Lurie’s proposed “Family Zoning” plan would yield far fewer new housing units than the city needs to address its housing shortage, reports J.K. Dineen in the San Francisco Chronicle.

According to the report, the rezoning proposed in the plan would produce 14,646 units by 2045, or 40 percent of the homes San Francisco needs by 2013 based on its state-approved housing element. This number is based on a high-growth model that estimates the new supply would lower rents and sale prices by 4.2 percent. A second more conservative scenario estimates a growth of only 8,504 units. 

The report provides fodder for both supporters and opponents of the rezoning plan, which would upzone 92,000 parcels on primarily transit corridors. According to the report, the plan would still have a positive impact, and “would lead to a significant increase in the city’s housing supply, and have broadly positive effects on housing prices and the city’s broader economy.”

The report could have an impact on whether the controversial plan gains enough approval to succeed, and could prompt the state to take action if they deem San Francisco’s housing element unrealistic.