How one Arlington YIMBY used 'homebrew econometrics' to lobby for density

When the Arlington County Board was set to vote on a proposal that would add hundreds of new housing units to Pentagon City, Virginia, Matthew Kowalyk decided to use his background in economics and data analysis to make the case for approving the proposal.

In a piece for Greater Greater Washington, Kowalyk explains how he did it — and how other supporters of density can do the same in their communities. "While turning to numbers isn’t a sure-fire way to persuade people to approve more housing, pointing out the fundamentals of a neighborhood’s conditions might cut through the noise surrounding a development proposal."

For Kowalyk, the "fundamentals" include transportation infrastructure and its capacity for new residents, local housing costs and potential tax revenue. "I did not dive into greenspace, walkways, or other issues because I wanted to focus on the reasons why I believe we need more density in general."

Kowalyk's analysis estimated an $8 million to $11 million increase in tax revenue if the upzoning plan is approved. It also revealed that local transit stations (and their parking lots) are well equipped to handle additional travelers, and that housing costs in the region have increased significantly over the last two decades, pointing to a need for more housing. 

Kowalyk admits the limitations of his "homebrew econometrics," but encourages other housing advocates and planners to use the data and resources at their disposal to provide a sober perspective on a city or region's housing challenges.