High cost of living and lack of jobs are driving urban populations out of cities, and simply increasing density requirements might not be enough to reverse the trend, argues Jim Russell.
Looking at demographic shifts in Toronto, San Francisco and San Antonio, geographer Jim Russell argues that migratory patterns rather than taxes or density affect innovation in metropolitan areas.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, fewer people from other countries moved to Ontario in the last year and more people moved out. Russell suspects they all fled to Alberta, "where the jobs are."
High rents in urban areas also contribute to out-migration.
Studies by Trulia, a real estate data analyst, show that California is experiencing in-migration from incomes larger than $200,000, while poor and middle-income cohorts drive out-migration to other states.
Where are low and middle income Californians going? Texas.
Ryan Avent's book The Gated City argues that high productivity places like urban cores also have a high cost of living. Density increases would make them more productive and lower the cost of living, optimizing their attractiveness.
However, places like San Antonio, which are expanding outward rather than up or in, are increasing their productivity through in-migration and low home prices, writes Russell who recognizes an almost irreversible trend in the demographic shift driven by home prices.
FULL STORY: Urban Innovation And Density
Depopulation Patterns Get Weird
A recent ranking of “declining” cities heavily features some of the most expensive cities in the country — including New York City and a half-dozen in the San Francisco Bay Area.
California Exodus: Population Drops Below 39 Million
Never mind the 40 million that demographers predicted the Golden State would reach by 2018. The state's population dipped below 39 million to 38.965 million last July, according to Census data released in March, the lowest since 2015.
Chicago to Turn High-Rise Offices into Housing
Four commercial buildings in the Chicago Loop have been approved for redevelopment into housing in a bid to revitalize the city’s downtown post-pandemic.
Significant Investments Needed to Protect LA County Residents From Climate Hazards
A new study estimates that LA County must invest billions of dollars before 2040 to protect residents from extreme heat, increasing precipitation, worsening wildfires, rising sea levels, and climate-induced public health threats.
Federal Rule Raises Cost for Oil and Gas Extraction on Public Lands
An update to federal regulations raises minimum bonding to limit orphaned wells and ensure cleanup costs are covered — but it still may not be enough to mitigate the damages caused by oil and gas drilling.
Opinion: Criminalizing Homelessness Is ‘Expensive and Shortsighted’
Policies that punish and fine unhoused people for sheltering outdoors, even when other shelter is not available, are the most visible but least efficient ways to reduce homelessness.
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