Study: Building More Forest Roads Would Quadruple Fire Risk

A new study is “throwing more cold water” on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s rationale for rescinding the Roadless Rule and allowing for more road construction in national forests and other federal lands. 

According to an article by Zoë Rom in Inside Climate News, “Wildfires on federal lands average about five times the size of those in the rest of the country, leading some of the nation’s top land managers to argue that national forests are a front line for fighting the nation’s steep increase in wildland blazes.” However, research — and experience — shows that a lack of roads is not one of the major obstacles to wildfire response.

The study found that between 1992 and 2024 wildfires were four times more likely to ignite within 50 meters of a road than in areas without motor vehicle access. The results were consistent across Forest Service regions around the country. 

Notably, “The fires that escaped initial attack by firefighters, the ones that become the large, catastrophic blazes driving the current crisis, show no meaningful size difference between roaded and roadless areas. So more roads means more fire, and they provide no improvement in the outcomes of the fires that matter most.”

According to Rom, reversing the rule requires the administration to “be able to demonstrate a rational connection between the evidence and the eventual decision” before a court and the USDA “must fully analyze the environmental consequences of rescinding the rule, consider a full range of alternatives to the rescission and meaningfully grapple with the science.”