The Fallacy Behind the Downtown Growth Story

Wendell Cox delves into the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau that have prompted some to herald a return to America's downtowns, and argues that reports of such population growth are vastly overblown.

1 minute read

October 2, 2012, 6:00 AM PDT

By Jonathan Nettler @nettsj


Although some news reports of the latest Census Bureau numbers showing America's downtown population growth were careful to note the attendant growth in suburban and exurban areas, Cox shows just how exaggerated the ratio of the latter to the former is. "[T]o characterize the trend since 2000 as reflective of any 'flocking' to
the cities is to exaggerate the trend of downtown improvement beyond
recognition," says Cox. "Among the 51 major metropolitan areas (those with more
than 1 million population), nearly 99 percent of all population growth
between 2000 and 2010 was outside the downtown areas."

While Cox's reasoning for the increasing popularity of the nation's downtowns, which he attributes largely to "efforts to make crime infested urban cores suitable for habitation," is suspect, his breakdown of the Census numbers is hard to argue with.

Monday, October 1, 2012 in New Geography

Sweeping view of Portland, Oregon with Mt. Hood in background against sunset sky.

Oregon Passes Exemption to Urban Growth Boundary

Cities have a one-time chance to acquire new land for development in a bid to increase housing supply and affordability.

March 12, 2024 - Housing Wire

Aerial view of green roofs with plants in Sydney, Australia.

Where Urban Design Is Headed in 2024

A forecast of likely trends in urban design and architecture.

March 10, 2024 - Daily Journal of Commerce

Cobblestone street with streetcar line, row of vintage streetlights on left, and colorful restaurant and shop awnings on right on River Street in Savannah, Georgia.

Savannah: A City of Planning Contrasts

From a human-scales, plaza-anchored grid to suburban sprawl, the oldest planned city in the United States has seen wildly different development patterns.

March 12, 2024 - Strong Towns

Aerial View of Chuckanut Drive and the Blanchard Bridge in the Skagit Valley.

Washington Tribes Receive Resilience Funding

The 28 grants support projects including relocation efforts as coastal communities face the growing impacts of climate change.

March 18 - The Seattle Times

Historic buildings in downtown Los Angeles with large "Pan American Lofts" sign on side of building.

Adaptive Reuse Bills Introduced in California Assembly

The legislation would expand eligibility for economic incentives and let cities loosen regulations to allow for more building conversions.

March 18 - Beverly Press

View from above of swan-shaped paddleboats with lights on around artesian fountain in Echo Park Lake with downtown Los Angeles skylien in background at twilight.

LA's Top Parks, Ranked

TimeOut just released its list of the top 26 parks in the L.A. area, which is home to some of the best green spaces around.

March 18 - TimeOut

News from HUD User

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Call for Speakers

Mpact Transit + Community

New Updates on PD&R Edge

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.