Metropolitan Asthma Predictions Don't Tell Much

<p>Wendell Cox discusses the "faulty predictions" of a recent report on the prevalence of asthma in 100 U.S. metropolitan areas.</p>
January 25, 2007, 6am PST | Nate Berg
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"It would seem that the risk factors should predict the comparative number of incidents. They do not and by a long shot. If, for example, a score of 1 to 3 is given for each of the three incident categories rates, the worst score would be 9 (the rating is simply, worse than average, average and better than average) and the best score would be 0. The results are considerably different than the more complex index system that includes the risk factors."

"Looking at the list, Atlanta, considered the worst (#1) by AAFA would have a score of 7, not much worse than best (#100) Seattle, which has a score of 6. Perennial urban planning favorite, Portland, ranked in the top quarter by AAFA (#75) actually gets the worst score possible, at 9, along with a number of other areas, along with the urban elite favorites of New York, Boston and Washington. Colorado Springs is rated #95 (6th best) by AAFA, yet would also have the worst possible score in asthma incident factors, at 9, tied with Portland."

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Published on Wednesday, January 24, 2007 in From the Heartland
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