An Uncertain Future: America's Urban Middle Class

In the election's wake, Richard Florida compiles some telling statistics on the nation's threatened middle class. It's on the decline, yes, but it's also becoming more segregated into certain cities, often in the Sunbelt and Rust Belt.

2 minute read

November 29, 2016, 6:00 AM PST

By Philip Rojc @PhilipRojc


We've all seen the statistics on America's shrinking middle class. But how is that decline dispersed geographically, especially in metro areas? Richard Florida discusses data from Pew covering 2000 through 2014.

For one thing, a process of segregation is taking place, dividing metros and neighborhoods more thoroughly by income. "Nationwide, 172 of 229 metros saw growth in affluent, upper-income households in the past decade and a half; 160 saw an increase in the share of low-income households; and roughly half, 108, experienced both." Also, "[t]he share of American families living in either all-poor or all-affluent neighborhoods more than doubled, increasing from roughly 15 percent to nearly 34 percent."

Florida points out that across the country, cities are seeing their middle classes shrink. "What really stands out is that every single large metro (over one million people) saw its middle class decline. In fact, less than 10 percent of all U.S. metros saw any increase in their middle class whatsoever, with most of these gains being in the range of one percent. The large metros where the middle class is smallest are a combination of superstar cities, tech hubs, resource economies and poorer places. [Among large metros] L.A. has the smallest middle class overall, followed by San Francisco, New York, and San Jose." 

From the maps included, it's clear that the metros with the largest middle classes tend to be in places that favored Donald Trump this year. "Simply put, a big part of our national economic dilemma is this: the middle class is larger in declining places and smaller in growing ones. This is especially troubling as a large middle class remains a bulwark against rising economic inequality."

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 in CityLab

Sweeping view of Portland, Oregon with Mt. Hood in background against sunset sky.

Oregon Passes Exemption to Urban Growth Boundary

Cities have a one-time chance to acquire new land for development in a bid to increase housing supply and affordability.

March 12, 2024 - Housing Wire

Aerial view of green roofs with plants in Sydney, Australia.

Where Urban Design Is Headed in 2024

A forecast of likely trends in urban design and architecture.

March 10, 2024 - Daily Journal of Commerce

Cobblestone street with streetcar line, row of vintage streetlights on left, and colorful restaurant and shop awnings on right on River Street in Savannah, Georgia.

Savannah: A City of Planning Contrasts

From a human-scales, plaza-anchored grid to suburban sprawl, the oldest planned city in the United States has seen wildly different development patterns.

March 12, 2024 - Strong Towns

Aerial View of Chuckanut Drive and the Blanchard Bridge in the Skagit Valley.

Washington Tribes Receive Resilience Funding

The 28 grants support projects including relocation efforts as coastal communities face the growing impacts of climate change.

March 18 - The Seattle Times

Historic buildings in downtown Los Angeles with large "Pan American Lofts" sign on side of building.

Adaptive Reuse Bills Introduced in California Assembly

The legislation would expand eligibility for economic incentives and let cities loosen regulations to allow for more building conversions.

March 18 - Beverly Press

View from above of swan-shaped paddleboats with lights on around artesian fountain in Echo Park Lake with downtown Los Angeles skylien in background at twilight.

LA's Top Parks, Ranked

TimeOut just released its list of the top 26 parks in the L.A. area, which is home to some of the best green spaces around.

March 18 - TimeOut

News from HUD User

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Call for Speakers

Mpact Transit + Community

New Updates on PD&R Edge

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.