Worried about feeding the world's growing population, especially as it increases meat consumption and farmland is impacted by climate change? No fear - improved crop technology and slowing world growth will allow farms to be converted to wildlands.
So says a new report (PDF) from the Program for the Human Environment at the Rockefeller University in New York. It goes by the title, "Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing". Alister Doyle, Reuter's Environment Correspondent, explains that "the authors said that the idea of "Peak Farmland" was borrowed from the phrase "Peak Oil", the possibility that world use of petroleum is at its maximum." [See contributor's note below.]
The report projects that cropland needed to feed the world's growing population will decrease by 10% by 2060 due to "moderation of population and tastes and ingenuity of farmers", wrote co-author and Director for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University, Jesse Ausubel "in a speech about the study he led in the journal Population and Development Review."
"More crops for use as biofuels and increased meat consumption in emerging economies such as China and India, demanding more cropland to feed livestock, would not offset a fall from the peak driven by improved yields, it calculated."
The result, predict the authors, is that "almost 150 million hectares (370 million acres) could be restored to natural conditions such as forest by 2060."
However, the Rockefeller University report conflicts with a recent U.N. report.
"A June 2012 report by the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), however, said that an extra net 70 million hectares of land worldwide would have to be cultivated in 2050, compared with now: "Land and water resources are now much more stressed than in the past and are becoming scarcer," it said, referring to factors such as soil degradation and salinisation."
Doyle notes that "changing diet was also a big uncertainty as the world population headed toward about 10 billion and simultaneously grappled with problems of obesity and malnourishment."
[Contributor's note: The term, 'peak farmland' may appear confusing as the concept of 'peak oil' refers to demand outstripping supply, i.e. shrinking oil reserves will result in economic disruption as oil prices increase dramatically, e.g. $300/barrel. The term was coined prior to advent of oil production from unconventional sources, e.g. shale oil and oil sands. Peak Food was described in that light (escalating demand, shrinking supply) in Planetizen, 2008: "From 'Peak Oil' to 'Peak Food'"]
FULL STORY: "Peak farmland" is here, crop area to diminish: study
Oregon Passes Exemption to Urban Growth Boundary
Cities have a one-time chance to acquire new land for development in a bid to increase housing supply and affordability.
Where Urban Design Is Headed in 2024
A forecast of likely trends in urban design and architecture.
Savannah: A City of Planning Contrasts
From a human-scales, plaza-anchored grid to suburban sprawl, the oldest planned city in the United States has seen wildly different development patterns.
New York Transit Agency Launches Performance Dashboard
The tool increases transparency about the agency’s performance on a variety of metrics.
Washington Tribes Receive Resilience Funding
The 28 grants support projects including relocation efforts as coastal communities face the growing impacts of climate change.
Adaptive Reuse Bills Introduced in California Assembly
The legislation would expand eligibility for economic incentives and let cities loosen regulations to allow for more building conversions.
City of Rochester
Boston Harbor Now
City of Bellevue
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
Mpact Transit + Community
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
City of Birmingham, Alabama
City of Laramie, Wyoming
Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.