Is Portland's Urban Growth Boundary Doomed?

"... Housing affordability has dropped substantially in Portland, with critics of smart growth attributing the shortage of land resulting from the urban growth boundary. For advocates of smart growth, who generally favor incentives for low-income housing, Portland’s decline in housing affordability has raised concern. This concern, however, has been allayed by findings published by Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) in Atlanta. In an American Planning Association publication, Economic Development and Smart Growth,3 Dr. Nelson theorizes that rising housing prices may be the result of Portland having become more desirable as a result of smart growth.4 This tentatively stated proposition has been stretched into received wisdom by some smart growth proponents. Economic Development and Smart Growth compares Portland and Atlanta with respect to a number of factors, generally finding that Portland performance is superior... The consequences of the UGB became evident only as land became more scarce in the 1990s. Housing prices have risen inordinately, and there is now a shortage of commercial land for development.6 This paper analyzes trends in Portland and Atlanta, during which time Portland’s urban containment policies have begun to have serious effect."