Drop in U.S. Car Ownership Surprises Analysts
Between high gas prices, the recession and widespread improvements in public transit systems, Americans drove four million fewer cars in 2009.
It appears that a "saturation point" has been reached in car ownership, according to some analysts:
"Americans' infatuation with their cars has endured through booms and busts, but last year something rare happened in the United States: The number of automobiles actually fell. The size of the U.S. car fleet dropped by a hefty four million vehicles to 246 million, the only large decline since the U.S. Department of Transportation began modern recordkeeping in 1960. Americans bought only 10 million cars – and sent 14 million to the scrapyard. And the overall drop in car ownership has prompted speculation that the long American love affair with the car is fading. Analysts cite such diverse factors as high gas prices, the expansion of many municipal transit systems, and the popularity of networking websites among teenagers replacing cars as a way of socializing."
There is also evidence that because young people rely more on electronic socializing, they no longer see car ownership as a necessary 'rite of passage', which may lead to even greater drops in coming years.
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Love Affair Not Ending -- It's the Economy Stupid
Speculation that a drop of 4 million cars in the U.S. indicates that our love affair with the automobile is on the wane is groundless irresponsible speculation. It's the economy folks! With nation in the throes of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, many households have had to reduce the number of motor vehicles they own, in some cases down to zero. I imagine the real proof in the pudding will be the next American Community Survey or the 2010 Census which will give us a factual report on the number of motor vehicles to which households have access (admittedly an inexact proxy for ownership).
But to suggest that this one-time drop in the number of vehicles suggests our love affair with the auto is over is simply groundless speculation that hopefully will not be repeated.
Daniel Lauber, AICP
Planner/Attorney
AICP President 2003-2005, 1992-1994
APA President 1985-1986
http://planningcommunications.com
Query
Query: will this trend continue over the next few years, as cash-strapped local governments take an ax to public transit?
Depends On Gas Prices
I think it depends primarily on the price of gasoline. VMT was declining a couple of years ago, because gas prices were soaring. When the recession began, gas prices crashed, but they now seem to be high considering how early in the recovery we are. I expect gas prices will go way up again as the recovery progresses, as increasing global demand presses against limited supply.
Charles Siegel