Bringing Down the House

"A number of economists and banking industry experts believe the subprime crisis could metamorphose into the biggest debacle to hit the sector since the savings and loan catastrophe of the 1980s, which caused some $500 billion in losses to the banking industry. And that means the future of a couple of name-brand financial institutions could be in jeopardy."

"Much will depend on how far home prices tumble over the next few quarters, how high unemployment climbs, how many homeowners are pushed into foreclosure from rate resets, and, most importantly, how far the crisis spills into the conventional mortgage market and other parts of the credit sector."

"Many believe the government will ultimately step in with a housing industry bailout to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars before it would allow a major bank to collapse."

"Subprime horror stories have been making headlines for much of the past year as falling home prices, a pullback in housing demand, overbuilding, interest rate resets, growing defaults and tightening lending standards played havoc in the residential market. A flurry of mortgage companies, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., New Century Financial Corp. and Delta Financial Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection."

"Experts fear this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are $1 trillion in outstanding subprime mortgages, with potential losses estimated at about $250 billion, said Bose George, an equity analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. Columbia University professor Charles Calomiris pegs the losses even higher — at between $300 and $400 billion."

"All of this comes as a large wave of ARM and hybrid mortgages are poised to reset this year — an event that could push the crisis into the conventional mortgage and credit markets. Once this happens, "it's almost impossible to imagine any bank or financial institution going unscathed and I would be very surprised if at least some aren't threatened," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank. He believes the losses will easily exceed that of the S&L debacle."