Urbanization And Declining Birth Rates In Asia
Birth rates have been steadily declining in many Asian countries -- a trend some are attributing partly to rapid industrialization and urbanization.
"Modernization, urbanization and industrialization have seen a collapse in birth rates far more sudden than in the West, and there is scant sign that the few modest measures Asians have taken to reverse the decline have had any significant effect."
"Japan, with a fertility rate stuck at 1.3 births per woman, is on track to lose half its population by 2105. Other places are even worse off. Hong Kong, at 0.9 births per woman, is at the bottom of the world fertility league. Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea all have rates marginally lower than Japan, or the worst performers in southern Europe."
"High property prices (in Hong Kong) and high forced-savings rates (at least in Singapore) may also be a factor in some places but cannot account for the general trend in the region."
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Geriatric Poorhouse??
"East Asia now has the world's worst demographics."
On the contrary, I would say that the countries with the highest birth rates have to world's worst demographics. The sooner world population growth ends, the better off we are.
I think it would be best for population growth to end with relatively stable populations, rather than with precipitous declines, but they are exaggerating to the point of absurdity when they say: "Japan, with a fertility rate stuck at 1.3 births per woman, is on track to lose half its population by 2105," other Asian countries have similar birth rates, and "That must change if the whole region is not to be a geriatric poorhouse."
Even this precipitous population decline would not change the region into a poorhouse, if productivity growth continues. In the United States, productivity (output per worker hour) increased eight-fold during the 20th century, because of improved technology. I expect that Japan's productivity increased even more.
If Japan's productivity continues to grow at rates like this, a smaller working generation can easily support a larger retired generation, even if population declines by half in the next century. (Again, I don't think that rapid population decline is desirable, because of the social dislocation it would cause, but it would certainly not change the country into a poorhouse.)
The real threats to prosperity during the coming century are global warming and resource depletion, which could cause immense suffering in the poor nations of the world, and both these threats are aggravated by population growth.
Charles Siegel