Mobility: Shanghai and the Car of the Future
24 April 2007 - 7:23am
It's increasingly clear that the future of the car in Asia, and possibly Africa and the Middle East as well, is going to be shaped as much by what happens in the Shanghai region as Western cities were by Detroit in the 20th century.
While many outsiders and urban planners lament the decline of the bicycle in China, we can't kid ourselves: Chinese consumers and the government are hell-bent on motorization. But the upside is that Shanghai could be the crucible for innovation that recasts the car into something more sustainable not just for China but for the whole world. Between GM, Toyota, and domestic manufacturer SAIC, there is a race going on in China, centered on Shanghai, to create a small, highly-functional, zero emission vehicle for the future.
The need to innovate to answer the challenge of stuffing 2 million more cars into congested, polluted, and parking-deficient Shanghai may be just the kick in the ass that car companies need. It will make the Japanese challenge of the 1980s look like a cakewalk in comparison.
Last week General Motors (GM) unveiled a hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered version of its Chevrolet Volt concept, a family of electric cars that get a portion of their energy from being plugged into the electrical grid. The first version, announced in January, married plug-in electric drive to a gasoline or ethanol generator that can recharge the battery.
Still, the Volt is part of a promising trend toward automotive electrification--which could decrease petroleum use and reduce carbon emissions. It is part of GM's response to an anticipated future in which both petroleum and carbon-dioxide emissions will carry a heavy price, driving consumers to buy vehicles that run on alternative, low-carbon power sources.
Read "GM's New Fuel-Cell Car" (Technology Review, 23 April 2007)
While many outsiders and urban planners lament the decline of the bicycle in China, we can't kid ourselves: Chinese consumers and the government are hell-bent on motorization. But the upside is that Shanghai could be the crucible for innovation that recasts the car into something more sustainable not just for China but for the whole world. Between GM, Toyota, and domestic manufacturer SAIC, there is a race going on in China, centered on Shanghai, to create a small, highly-functional, zero emission vehicle for the future.
The need to innovate to answer the challenge of stuffing 2 million more cars into congested, polluted, and parking-deficient Shanghai may be just the kick in the ass that car companies need. It will make the Japanese challenge of the 1980s look like a cakewalk in comparison.
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However...
Anthony, exciting stuff for sure. Yet, if a rapidly motorizing society with a billion people starts utilizing a electric sources of energy, where is that power coming from and how sustainable is it? I believe that I just read that China is currently opening coal burning power plants by the hundreds. What about those emissions? What if most cars in China become attached to a grid that is still so heavily dependent on the burning of fossil fuels?
I certainly support the move to make our cars cleaner, but the unintended consequences need to be checked by an equally committed effort to sustainability on the power generation front. As Jim Kunstler is fond of saying, we aren't going to run the interstate highway system on any combination of hydrogen,ethanol,natural gas or insert alternative fuel here, nor is China.