China's Landscape Transformed By Automobile
In 20 short years, the country has become the second largest car market in the world, and is in the midst of a road building bonanza.
"The transformation is startling. Where once there were muddy lanes, now concrete highways soar. In two short decades, roads that were crammed with bicycles have given way to highways choked with cars. China's landscape is being remodelled by the car.
Ten years ago there were almost no privately owned cars in China. By the end of 2005 there were almost 24 million. China now has more car brands than the United States, and the desire to move from two wheels to four shows no sign of disappearing. The Chinese car market has just overtaken Japan and is now the second largest market in the world, after the United States."
"In China, a growing middle-class is fuelling demand. And thanks to a massive road building programme there is now more open road for Chinese motorists. Before the country's market reforms began in the late-1980s it had almost no national road network. It now has almost 50,000 kilometres and a further 25,000 kilometres will be added over the next five years."
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140 million cars in China, etc.
If these predictions come true, then why even bother about global warming... we'll all choke to death on hot, dirty, polluted air. All the eco-friendly, sustainable, smart planning in the world won't help much.
Even here in "transit-friendly" San Francisco, most people would rather drive their Porsches and SUVs 2 blocks to their local Safeway than... God forbid! ...walk.
Sorry, I feel very pessimistic for this planet when I read stuff like this, which sadly, seems to be the inevitable future for all of us.
Have a nice day, all...
chrisinsobe
Less Room For Cars In China
Chinese cities are much denser than San Francisco, and I don't think they have room for American levels of automobile use, no matter how many freeways they build.
With 24 million cars, they still consider automobiles and freeways as sign of progress, despite all the traffic jams. Once they get up to 48 million or 96 million, they are bound to see that they are just creating a mess (though this is a tiny ratio of car ownership compared with the US).
Korea considered the Cheonggye freeway a sign of progress in the 1970s, but now that Korea is middle-class, they have removed this freeway, realizing that that heavy a level of auto dependency does not work in Seoul. Likewise, Tokyo is talking about removing a freeway (though in a very preliminary way).
The question is how long it takes Chinese cities to realize what Seoul has realized.
(Since I said in the first paragraph that Chinese cities don't have room for American levels of car use, let me add that the world's environment doesn't have room for American levels of car use. The US obviously should be reducing auto dependency to make our cities more livable and to fight global warming.)
Charles Siegel
"With 24 million cars, they
"With 24 million cars, they still consider automobiles and freeways as sign of progress, despite all the traffic jams. Once they get up to 48 million or 96 million, they are bound to see that they are just creating a mess..."
Yes, but the same mess has already been created in America (certainly in many metro areas), yet Americans, by and large, don't do anything about it (planners talk about it... that is about all). Car ownership is a powerful opiate in America. So, why expect that the Chinese will behave any differently...? I suspect that the Chinese will do great damage to their cities long before there is serious backlash against all the damage cars and freeways are likely to inflict upon cities like Shanghai and Beijing. Private car ownership is new and novel for most Chinese, and I'd be willing to bet that there will be a couple hundred million cars on the road in China (still a relatively small ratio of car ownership compared to the US), before they wake up to the mess created as a result.
Yes, big Asian cities are far denser than San Francisco, but Asians (by my admittedly anecdotal observation) seem willing (if albeit begrudgingly) to tolerate levels of traffic congestion unheard of in America. I've not travelled in China much (except HK and nearby Guangzhou), but I've been to Manila, Bangkok, Delhi and Bombay. All are clogged with traffic best described as standing-still chaos (cars, trucks, buses, motor-rickshaws, bicycles, animals in the big Indian cities). One time I was walking along D.B. Gupta Road (a major road in Paharganj near the New Delhi Rwy. Station), keeping an eye on a bus alongside of me.... within minutes, I was blocks and blocks ahead, not even walking particularly fast (impossible to do so anyway because the "sidewalks," where they existed, were clogged as well). Given that there are 1.4 billion people in China, with that number soon to be surpassed in India, I think a couple hundred million private cars in EACH country will come to be within the next 2 or 3 decades.
Sorry to sound so negative, but I don't hold out a lot of hope that China will learn from America's mistakes and bad examples.
(Of course, there's not enough oil and gas on the planet to allow the whole world to consume at the rate Americans do; it will not stop countries like China and India from trying however, so that the resulting inevitable bidding up of the prices of oil and gas to levels far higher than they are now, may finally someday force everyone in the world to find other means of transporting themselves about.)
Christopher C.
Filling China's Streets To Capacity
Maybe I am being too optimistic to say that they will start removing freeways.However, the general rule world-wide is that automobile use increases until the street capacity is filled, and then it can't increase any further. European cities are denser than American cities, so their streets have filled to capacity at a lower level of per capita automobile use. Asian cities are denser than European cities, so their streets will fill (or have already filled) at an even lower level of per capita automobile use.
I think this physical constraint will prevent Asian cities from getting anywhere near American levels of automobile use, no matter how many freeways they build. You are right to say that they can do plenty of damage to their cities and to the world's environment at this level. I look to Seoul as a sign that they *may* wake up and start reducing the damage they do.
Charles Siegel