Who Sprawls The Most?

12 July 2001 - 12:00am

Contrary to conventional wisdom, cities in the East are sprawling faster than their West coast counterparts.

Portland SuburbMost metropolitan areas are consuming land for urbanization much more rapidly than they are adding population. In that sense, most U.S. metro areas are "sprawling" more rapidly today than they have in the past. However, in many ways, the conventional wisdom about metropolitan densities and sprawl in the United States is inaccurate.

We define sprawl in terms of consumption of land resources only. In research for the Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, we calculated the density of every metropolitan area in the United States between 1982 and 1997. Density was defined as the population (estimated from the decennial census) divided by the urbanized land (derived from the National Resources Inventory's national survey of land use, conducted every five years). Our research was based on an actual measurement of urbanized land, rather than the Census Bureau's definition of "urbanized area," which does not measure land use.

Map 1We found that many of the densest metropolitan areas in the United States are located in the West -specifically, in California, Arizona, and Nevada. The older metropolitan areas of the Northeast and Midwest also have historically high density at their core, but their recent development has sprawled dramatically, reducing their overall population density by large amounts in only 15 years.

According to conventional wisdom, Western cities are sprawling because they are auto-oriented and older Northeastern and Midwestern cities are dense because they are dense in the aging core. In some sense, the conventional wisdom is correct. Western cities are auto oriented - that is, they do not have extremely dense old cores and they are built at densities that make it difficult to provide public transit alternatives. And in the Northeast and Midwest, older core areas continue to function at very high densities by national standards. They contain densely developed neighborhoods and business districts, and they often include a very high level of public transportation riders compared to national averages.

But at the scale of the metropolitan area, the conventional wisdom is wrong - at least so far as consumption of land for urbanization is concerned.

Map 3Metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest are consuming land at a much greater rate than they are adding population, and so their "marginal" density is extremely low. (Although they are adding population, Southern metro areas also have low marginal densities.) At the same time, the auto-oriented metropolitan areas of the West have overall metropolitan densities that are comparable to those in the Northeast and the Midwest. Furthermore, they are currently growing at much higher densities than their counterparts anywhere else in the nation. Western metro areas - whatever else their characteristics may be - are using less land to accommodate population growth than metro areas in any other part of the nation.

There is no single problem of "sprawl" in the United States today; and there is no single solution. Rather, the problems associated with metropolitan growth throughout the nation are characterized by regional differences, and policy responses should be different as well.


William Fulton is President of the Solimar Research Group. Rolf Pendall is an Assistant Professor in the Department of City & Regional Planning at Cornell University and a Senior Research Associate at the Solimar Research Group. Mai Nguyen is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Urban Planning at the University of California, Irvine, and a Research Associate at the Solimar Research Group. Alicia Harrison is a Research Associate at the Solimar Research Group. This article was prepared from "Who Sprawls Most? How Growth Patterns Differ Across the U.S.," which was prepared for the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy.

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Data to measure sprawl

Measuring sprawl is nearly as difficult as defining it. The NRI data are the best we have but they only see land in big, 10 square mile blocks. Prof. John Landis at UC Berkeley has used an elaborate GIS system to reduce the unit of analysis to 100 square meter blocks.

I tried to deal with this problem of quantifying rates of urban growth over time in my master's thesis at MIT. It's available from my (ill-maintained) web site: http://www.geocities.com/benschonberger. You'll find the discussion in the Appendix.

Brookings Responds to Demographia Concerns

The "Who Sprawls Most" report relies on revised data provided to the authors by mail on CD from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Inventory Division in April 2001. This release corrects problems that were caused by a computer programming error in 1999-2000.

While the data are currently not available on NRI's website, the NRI will repost when sampling errors are generated. As we state in the report, the new release does not and cannot eliminate sampling errors, which are higher for single-county metropolitan areas.

For a full response, see:

http://www.brookings.edu/es/urban/publications/fultonresponse.htm

Faulty Data?

Demographia has published a critique of the data used by the researchers of the report. Wendell Cox on Demographia writes: "The unreliability of the NRI for urban area trends is illustrated by examining the change in agricultural land reported by state through the USDA Census of Agricultural (an actual enumeration) and the NRI (a statistical sampling process), both of which are conducted every five years. From 1992 to 1997, the total variation of state level NRI estimates (absolute value), at 36,100 acres, was greater than the actual change recorded in either the Agricultural Census (-13,700 acres) or the NRI (-14,100 acres). The NRI reported changes varied -52.7 percent on average from the Agricultural Census number, while the gross agricultural land figure from the NRI ranged fro 46 percent above to 53 below the Agricultural Census."
The critique is here:
http://www.demographia.com/db-brookings.htm

It would be great if the authors of the original article would address this concern about the data.

Sprawl

Bill Fulton's analysis is a much more objective way of saying what the Washington Post wrote on July 16:

Of the 15 most crowded [?!]US Metro areas, 10 are in Western States.

"Who Sprawls Most? How Growth Patterns Differ

"Who Sprawls Most? How Growth Patterns Differ" is really about where not who. If it were about "who", it would have addressed a quite injustice related to solving the sprawl problem. In Maryland and perhaps elsewhere, state government elected to get tough with those who sprawl the least, the poor in need of state housing assistance. It is easier to go after the weak than the well off who build big houses on acre plus lots. Maryland even stopped the use of HOME (federal funds) to repair existing houses already occupied by residents in a county with negative growth. May we have a study about this?

James Upchurch

President

Interfaith Housing of Western Maryland

jupchurch@interfaithhousing.org

Regional spawl patterns

This work is extremely interesting, and adds fresh insight to the continuing sprawl debate.

However, I wonder about your conclusion, that thre is "no single solution." It seems to me that "new urbanist" and similar "smart growth" suburban developments seem to have caught on more in Western and Southern metro areas than in others (possibly because the greater amount of growth creates a market for different types of development?).

If this is the case, then providing for some higher density new developments along with traditional (cul de sac, etc.) new developments could be a national answer for curbing sprawl.

Has any work been done to show if my hypothesis (greater implementation of new "new urbanist/smart growth" developments in the west and south) is true?

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