San Francisco Seeing A Shift To The Suburbs
A new census survey offers a startling look at the de-population of older cities in the San Francisco Bay Area, especially among African Americans, as the flight to the more affordable, outer East Bay communities continues.
"The American Community Survey offers the first look at how the Bay Area has changed since 2000. For the first time, the data include detailed information for cities and counties with 65,000 or more residents."
While the old census attempted to count every person, the new survey makes estimates based on a portion of the population
"Cities such as Berkeley, Oakland and San Francisco are seeing their populations shrink and age, while a multicultural migration continues to the east, according to data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau."
The household population of San Francisco dropped 5 percent, from 756,976 in 2000 to 719,077 in 2005, the new data suggest. In Oakland, the population appears to have gone from 392,309 in 2000 to between 357,796 and 390,024 in 2005.
The most dramatic population decreases in San Francisco were among Hispanic and black residents. The city's black population dropped by between 20 and 25 percent, and the Hispanic population went down as much as 10 percent, according to results of the 2005 community survey.
In Oakland, the population dropped by as much as 9 percent, while the black population dropped by between 13 and 24 percent, from 142,460 black residents in 2000 to between 107,637 and 124,267 in 2005. However, Oakland's Hispanic and Asian populations appear to have increased"
"Researchers who rely on census data say the new numbers will prove helpful in coming years, when the survey results can be compared. But the 2005 numbers could have some kinks.
"Patricia Perry, a senior regional planner with the Association of Bay Area Governments, said she doesn't believe the populations could have dropped so significantly in San Francisco and Oakland and said she has doubts about the accuracy."
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Strange Spin On Bay Area Migration
The Chronicle puts a strange spin on these census figures by saying that minorities are fleeing from SF to the suburbs and SF is depopulating.
When you look at how quickly SF housing prices are increasing, it is obvious that this is not the whole truth. If people generally were fleeing from SF to the suburbs, SF housing prices would be going down (or at least going up much more slowly than in the rest of the Bay Area).
What is actually happening is that minorities are being priced out of SF, Oakland, and Berkeley. Homes that used to be occupied by large minority families are now being occupied by smaller and wealthier white families, so population is going down.
The African-American family in the article may well like Antioch better than their old house in Berkeley. But having seen the gentrification that is going on in south Berkeley, I am sure they were replaced by a wealthier family -- who paid much more for the house in Berkeley than it would cost for a similar house in Antioch.
Charles Siegel