U.S. Armed Forces Predicting Peak Oil

Surplus oil production capacity could go away in the next two years and shortages could get serious by 2015, says a new report from the U.S. Joint Forces.

AutoBlogGreen says that the source of the army's numbers goes uncited in the report, but is similar to a peak oil assessment from Kuwait.

"The U.S. military thinks we're one step closer to peak oil, the point at which oil demand will forever outstrip oil supply, and therefore we're one step closer to fighting over the last rusting cans of gasoline like so many scraps of meat. On the plus side, we're also one step closer to finally equipping our cars with superchargers and massive gas tanks rigged with explosives a la Mad Max and his archetypal peak-oil sled, "the last of the V-8 Interceptors.""

Full Story: U.S. military warns of oil production shortage by 2015



Irvin Dawid's picture

Scratching my head at this article

I suspect something is wrong with this article, but who am I to dispute our armed forces? In the U.S., it is acknowledged that 2007 was the peak year of oil consumption. EIA does not predict a shortage for xx years. Of course, on an international level, developing nations, including China, are predicted to increase consumption levels, while industrialized nations will decrease theirs. Could AutoBlog have omitted key parts?
Irvin Dawid, Palo Alto, CA

IEA forecasts.

AIUI IEA has rejiggered their forecast to somewhere around 2020-2025 peak now, in line with everyone else finally. Have they changed it again?



Not Really Peak Oil

"peak oil, the point at which oil demand will forever outstrip oil supply,"

Notice that he is using the buzzword "peak oil" but he is not really talking about the time when production will peak. He is talking about the time when demand outstrips supply.

It is possible that production will continue to grow but demand will grow more quickly. Though US demand may have peaked already, world demand is still growing rapidly.

I expect that supply will have trouble keeping up, so prices will go up rapidly in a few years, after we have a strong recovery from this recession (just as prices went up rapidly when the economy was strong before the recession began).

Charles Siegel

Selective Citation

The report reads: "The central problem for the coming decade will not be a lack of petroleum reserves, but rather a shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity."

In other words, economic regulation and politically derived-incentives (green tax breaks) have distorted the marketplace (for good or bad). This is not evidence of peak oil.

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